As we argued in our last post the Republican Party in the House seems very likely to split into two factions as the result of the 2016 elections. Many Republican voters (enough to make Donald Trump the nominee) are angry at the Republican “Establishment” for not stopping President Obama on a variety of issues. The various charges that Paul Ryan is some sort of secret agent of “The Establishment” echo craziness from the days of None Dare Call it Treason (1964) and A Choice Not an Echo (1964) with their conspiracy theories about Communists and New York Bankers.
Unlike in the 1850s there is no second dimension of Congressional voting. Almost all issues — including lifestyle and affective — have been drawn into the first dimension. The split in the Republican Party will occur on this strange dimension that mixes economic and the classic “social” issues. ...
Suppose the split occurs somewhere to the right of [House Benghazi Conspiracy Theory Committee Chairman Trey] Gowdy. Not everyone to the right of Gowdy listens to “talk radio from Area 51”. So some sorting out will occur between the two factions — traditional Republican Conservatives vs. “Conspiracy Republicans”. Assuming that Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 Presidential election, it is difficult to see how the Republican Party could ever again win the Presidency given the alienation of Hispanics, Blacks, and Social Liberals from the Republican Party. In addition, the traditional Internationalist Conservative Republicans will be willing to make deals with President Hillary Clinton to increase Defense Spending which will mean the end of the sequester. This will further divide the Republicans.
But what might finally trigger a realignment of the New Deal Party System are the obvious divisions in the Democratic Party that to this point have been papered over by their solid opposition to the Republicans.All persuasive observations from the Experts. Two points to consider.
1) the Democratic party's tendency toward unity in face of a dangerous opposition party may dissipate if the GOP goes "Whig." As the insurgent forces trying to destroy parts of the American Social Compact lose their effectiveness as fighting units, Allied Coalition forces formerly threatened by this common foe may disband from their current alliances.
2) If the current and corrupt version of the GOP goes "Whig," individual pieces, factions, groups, etc., will group into a new alliance. The two-party system is likely to survive just in a different configuration.
Whatever the next iteration becomes, the current version of the GOP is wholly unfit for governance and its toxic influence should be limited at the federal level to the extent practicable. BUT - the next WHIG party, however it shakes out, has gotta be better than today's GOP. Its gotta be.