At Least He Didn’t Do Infomercials – Will the GOP nominee be a Loon or Establishment Pick

At least I don’t think Rick Santorum did infomercials to turn a buck since being turned from office. While he did win some sort of a presidential preference poll in one of the darker red parts of the map recently, he has had some odd jobs as of late. Dave Weigel recollects:

Three years ago, I remember meeting Rick Santorum in a booth at the Values Voter Conference, helping advertise a V-Chip-esque product. He looked as miserable as any ex-politician I've ever seen. A young conservative sidled up as we were talking, and informed Santorum of the new website she was putting together.

"It's called Catholic-dom."

"Catholic-dom?" he said, looking simultaneously bored and confused.

"Like Christendom, but Catholic," she said.

One of the far right candidates has a shot at the nomination. Before Bachmann entered the race, my bet would be that Santorum had a shot at winning the nomination. I’m not sure now. Sarah Palin was always a joke, but she’s fun to have around. Her reality show was hilarious - at the least the episode and a half that I watched were.

There is a theory under one of the schools of thought in Political Science, that holds that party preferences tend to moderate with time out of office. Generally it holds that the longer your party has been shut out, the more moderate that party voters tend to be in selecting a candidate. There is group think and what not going on, I believe. The converse is also believed to be true – the party will tend to nominate a more ideological candidate if it has only been out of office a short the period of time – like now. If this pattern holds, a winger has a shot in a GOP primary. I think this is especially the case now, with the GOP winning the last election. Its voters are likely susceptible to believe their own propaganda rather than to realize that president’s party usually does badly in midterms and that economic conditions, jobs, etc are the drivers in elections.

I am not an expert on the topic, but I read books instead of burning them. This is just a theory advanced by a pointy headed college professor from an elitist coastal university. The Political Scientists use statistics and charts and other fancy pants learning devices to come up with this stuff. Now I know that all good right wingers should be suspicious of anything that is “just a theory” like global warming, evolution and gravity, but I generally reckon that the Egg Heads know a little more than me, having spent their careers in that type book learning.

Right now the GOP field is crowded with Loons, retreads, no-names and other unimpressive folks. So who knows what will happen. My guess is that Romney will somehow weasel his way to victory. That is what he does best – weasel. The GOP establishment has to back somebody and Willard Romney or the no-name guy – the former Governor of Saskatchewan or Minnesota or wherever he’s from - seem to be as likely a choice as anyone. They could back Haley Barbour, but I just don’t see Haley’s Campaign slogan to “Remake America in the Image of Mississippi” catching fire. Sorry Mississippi. Coming in 50^th on all the Good Lists and 1^st on all the Bad Lists has its price.

Who knows?

UPDATE: Excommunicated Republican David Frum provides the evidence that the bases is unwilling to compromise on ideology. The GOP primary voter believes:

"(1) American freedom stands in imminent danger of disappearing into totalitarian night; and (2) that the vast majority of the great and good American people are yearning for a mighty rollback of big government, even at considerable personal sacrifice."

And that the past has not happened. Previous defeats and the polls were due straying from principle. Stay the course.